Watch any financial channel on television long enough and you will be bombarded with so many
contradictory investment opinions that it will make your head spin. Do you ever wonder why so many educated and experienced investment professionals can use the same information to come to completely different conclusions? While it may seem like someone has to be off their rocker for people to disagree so drastically, what you may not realize is that each of those professionals subscribe to a different investment theory which radically alters their perspectives on the market. These theories serve as a starting point and a guide while financial professionals analyze the value of a stock, and as you’ve seen they can lead them to very different opinions.
There are three major investment theories that investors tend to subscribe to. Notice that I didn’t say professional investors, most personal investors can trace their beliefs about the market back to one of these theories as well. See if you can tell which ones describes your approach to investing.
Investment Theories
(Note: These theories are used by investors to determine the true value of stock. While some of them also have management styles based upon those beliefs, the purpose of this article is mainly to inform you of the assumptions made in each theory, not to teach the management style.)
Fundamental Analysis- Those who subscribe to this theory believe that the true value of a stock is determined by the company’s future earnings. They use fundamentals (or fundies) to attempt to determine if the companies expected earnings are higher than the company’s current earnings. If so, the price of the stock should go up. Several factors are taken into account including (1) the financial strength of the company, (2)the industry the company is in, (3)the board of directors/who is running the company, (4)new-product development, and (5) the overall economic growth of the economy.
This is probably the most popular approach to investing and because of this, an entire arsenal of tools have been created to help investors to choose stocks without having to do the dirty work of calculating statistics and researching company history. If you use a stock picking tool and you’re not sure what principals it uses to find the best buys and sells, chances are it was designed with this theory heavily in mind. A major pro of this method is the intimacy that proponents have with the companies they invest in. If a fundamental analyst does his own research then chances are he knows the ins and outs of every company that he’s invested in and can defend his logic to the end. The cons are that no matter how well he knows the company, the stock market price is still set by the public who most likely doesn’t know the ins and outs of the company and won’t always take that into account when buying shares. Another Con is the fact that so many programs have emerged based on this theory that many professional and private investors are not doing their own research and simply trust what their software tells them.
Technical Analysis – This theory is based on the assumption that the market value of a stock is determined by supply and demand in the market. Subscribers to this theory believe that all the information needed to calculate the real value of a stock is found in the market as a whole and not in the expected earnings or the intrinsic value of the corporation’s stock. Technical factors evaluated include the total number of shares traded, the number of sell orders, and the number of buy orders over a period of time. Technical analysts construct charts which plot past
price movements and allow them to observe trends and patters in the market as a whole as well as in a company’s stock.
This method is famous for the elaborate charts used. If your investor’s office or his computer screen is covered with charts with hundreds of x’s and o’s forming a graph, then he is utilizing this theory. Other charts include candlestick graphs, Bollinger bands and Fibonacci charts. Opponents of this theory (or proponents of other theories) claim that technical analysts aren’t truly analyzing anything but are trying to predict the future while proponents of technical analysis can back their beliefs with some impressive results. Pros include the fact the technical analysts usually end up doing their own research even though most of them don’t make their own charts (there are plenty of online sources for these). Most techies are also very familiar with market history, overall buy/sell patterns, and major movements in the market. The cons are that technical analysis can sometimes be presented as a hard science when the fact is; patterns can change without notice and as any professional investor can tell you “past performance is not a guarantee of future returns”.
Efficient Market Theory – This theory is sometimes referred to as the random walk theory. This theory states that buyers and sellers in the market always consider all the information available before buying a stock and therefore the market is completely efficient. Because of this, buys and sells are determined by an individual based solely on his assumptions of what others
will do. If he believes that others will buy a stock causing the price to rise, he tries to beat them to it and ride the wave up just to try to beat them to the sell. Any news or tax law that might affect a stock’s price is quickly absorbed by investors trying to seek a profit. Thus, the true value of a stock is determined by its market value.
Efficient Market Theory proponents basically believe that movements in the market are based on chance. You will win some and you will lose some and none of it is due to market patterns, company strength, or any predictable pattern. A popular belief that tends to follow this theory is that it is impossible to beat the market over the long run. Like flipping a coin, you eventually end up with the same number of heads and tails. You might as well just buy and hold because you are just as likely to lose your money as you are to make more. It is important to note that this is the only theory that holds to this belief. Both technical and fundamental analysts believe that a well trained and educated investor will be more profitable then someone who is just guessing. You may come across articles that show that a private investor just randomly picking stocks can do as well as a professional money manager using whatever system he subscribes to. This is a prime example of belief in and efficient market. The pros of this theory are that in the long run, the market does tend to go up in value so if you’re right and you break even with the market, then chances are you will ultimately come out ahead. The cons are that subscribing to this theory will most likely cause you not to seek out a professional advisor (because why pay someone for something you can do yourself) and if you’re wrong, you will end up missing out on higher returns or even losing what you started with due to lack of information.
Evaluation
So which theory is correct? Personally, I subscribe to all three. While I do believe that there is an unpredictable aspect to the market, I also believe that the strength of the company and the market’s past performance play a part in getting people to invest in a company and therefore affecting its stock price.
Think of an investment like a car that you’re test driving. The fundamentals are the structure and integrity of the car. They let you know what the car is made of, if there is any rust, what kind of engine it has and if all the systems are in place for the car to run well. But that doesn’t tell you everything you need to know. The technicals are the gauges and warning lights on the dashboard. While driving, it’s a good idea to keep an eye on them to make sure the car is responding as expected and that conditions aren’t approaching that would damage the car. If a check engine light comes on but all other lights and gauges are reading normal, chances are that you will keep driving but will keep a closer eye on your dashboard for anything else that indicates a problem. However, if your check engine light comes on, your engine temperature starts reading high and you lose oil pressure, chances are you will immediately pull over and get out of the car. It doesn’t matter how well the car was made or how it was expected to perform, the fact is that all other indications are showing that the car is not a good buy. Now think of the randomness of the market like the wind. You don’t know when it’s coming, what direction it’s coming from, or how hard. It also doesn’t affect the structure or systems of the car but it does affect how it handles, (just like the random market conditions don’t affect the structure of a company or the past market patterns
but it can affect future gains and losses in a portfolio). A new driver may be surprised and not know how to interpret even a slight breeze and may have to pull over and get out of the car while a seasoned driver could probably drive through a wind storm without ever leaving his lane.
So to answer the question,” which theory is correct”? Well, all of them and none of them. If any of them were right all the time wouldn’t everyone just flock to it and let the others die out? And if they were always wrong the probably wouldn’t have lasted long enough for us to talk about. The fact is that proponents of all three theories can strongly defend their strategies because all of them tend to be right at one time or another. It can be extremely hard to track which one is more accurate because successes and failures can vary even among investors that subscribe to the same theory.
In Conclusion
If you like to do your own investing then I would recommend reading up on these theories and how they relate to the market. Even if you don’t agree with one or two of them it’s wise to learn about them just so you don’t end up pushing aside some valuable insights that you may not find anywhere else. If nothing else, knowing a little about each theory may help you to identify the financial crackpots on television.
If you prefer to let a professional handle your accounts, I would advise talking to him about which theories that he subscribes to and give him a chance to defend his point of view. Remember, nothing speaks louder than results. Be sure you ask his about his past performances using his methods and how he adjusts his strategies as the market changes. Of course there are plenty of investors out there that subscribe to more than one theory, as well as investors that don’t understand any of them, so listen closely to what he is saying and be sure he can quantifiably defend his position.
So next time you turn on the business channel and hear two commentators arguing over the best investments, listen to what they are saying and see if you can discern what viewpoint they used to come to their conclusions.